Mr. Jobs has two openings today

June 29, 2007

Today is June 29th, and if you’ve been living under a rock for the last few days, today’s the day that Apple’s iPhone is unleashed upon the general public. It also happens to be the day that Disney/Pixar’s newest movie, Ratatouille, opens. Just to make sure that everyone understands the connection, Steve Jobs is the CEO of Apple, Inc., and he was the CEO of Pixar before Disney bought them not too long ago. Mr. Jobs is currently the largest shareholder of Disney stock.

This leads me to wonder…which of Mr. Jobs “babies” will have a bigger opening weekend in terms of dollars?

According to Box Office Mojo, the biggest opening weekend of all time is Spider-Man 3 at just over $151 million. The biggest opening weekend for an animated movie is Shrek the Third at around $121.6 million. The biggest opening weekend for a Pixar animated movie is The Incredibles at $70.5 million.

Let’s assume that Ratatouille will beat Spider-Man 3 as the largest opening weekend for a movie and will do so at $155 million (I don’t think it will, but we’re just going to use that as a round number). For the iPhone to beat $155 million, Apple/AT&T needs to sell 310,000 of the 4GB ($500) model, or 258,334 of the 8GB ($600) model. Since I suspect that the sales ratio of iPhone models will be 60% 8GB and 40% 4GB, Apple/AT&T needs to sell 155,000 of the 8GB model and 116,000 of the 4GB model, with a grand total of 271,000 combined.

Based on the line at the Apple Store on 5th Avenue, which I can now see from my office on Madison Avenue, I’d say that the iPhone will beat Ratatouille in the opening dollars game.

Update: According to an analyst at Piper Jaffray, 500,000 iPhones were sold between 6pm Friday and 6pm Sunday. Furthermore, the report indicates that 95% of the iPhones sold were the 8GB ($600) model. With that info, let’s look at the numbers:

  • Assuming the Piper Jaffray model ratio is correct, 475,000 8GB models were sold for a total of about $285 million, and 25,000 4GB models were sold for a total of about $12.5 million, bringing the combined total to $297.5 million.
  • If we use the Piper Jaffray total of 500,000, but use the Josh Madison ratio of 60% 8GB to 40% 4GB, then 300,000 8GB models were sold for a total of $180 million, and 200,000 4GB models were sold for a total of $100 million, bringing the combined total to $280 million.
  • Ratatouille, according to Box Office Mojo, brought in $47.2 million for the weekend.

Clearly, the iPhone won. Was there really any doubt?